美国可能拖欠债务，中国为何保持沉默

没有水的鱼

原作者：
来源China, with much to lose, largely silent on debt talks
译者ccongzhao

SHANGHAI — As the largest foreign holder of U.S. dollar debt, China has much to lose in the event of an American default. But with the default deadline just over a week away and negotiations in Washington seemingly at an impasse, the Beijing government and the state-run media — which normally do not pass up a chance to criticize U.S. policy —have been largely silent.
    中国作为美国国债最大的国外持有者，如果美国发生债务违约，中国会损失惨重。目前距还款期限还有一个多星期，但是双方在华盛顿的会谈似乎陷入了僵局，北京方面政府和官方媒体通常不会错过任何一个指责美国政策的机会，而如今却大多保持沉默。
One likely reason, analysts said, is the extreme sensitivity among Chinese officials to the accusation that the government has too many dollar holdings, putting China in what critics call “a dollar trap.”
    分析人士认为，北京保持沉默的一个原因极有可能是，有关政府持有太多美元的指责，使中国陷入评论家所谓的“美元陷阱”，中国的官员对这一指责极度敏感。
They also cited the risk that any statements from Beijing at this point could back fire, given the uncertain course of the debt talks in Washington and the extreme suspicion among many members of Congress about Chinese intentions and motives.
    考虑到在华盛顿举行的债务会谈进程充满不确定因素以及国会以及极度怀疑中国的意图和动机，那么在这个时候来自北京的任何声明都有产生相反效果的风险。
“There’s no question that they’re very concerned about how this is handled and about the implications for the U.S. economy and the value of the U.S. dollar,” said Kenneth Lieberthal, a China expert with the Brookings Institution in Washington, referring to Chinese officials. But, he said, “They’re sensitive to criticism that they’re over-invested in the U.S. dollar. Highlighting that is not in the interests of the top leadership.”
    华盛顿的布鲁斯学会中国问题专家李侃如（Kenneth Lieberthal）说：“毫无疑问，中国的官员们非常关心这件事将如何处理，以及这对美国经济及美元的价值意味着什么。”但是他还说：“他们对中国在美国过度投资的指责十分敏感，并强调这不符合高层的利益。”
He added, “I don’t think they want to risk complicating the situation with voluble statements.”
    他补充道：“我认为他们并不想滔滔不绝的陈词，以免使形势复杂化。”
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei made a brief statement at a July 14 news conference after a reporter asked for a comment on a warning by Moody’s Investors Service about a possible downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
    穆迪投资服务公司警告可能降低美国的信用等级，在7月14日外交部举行的新闻发布会上，一名记者要求对这一事件做出评论，新闻发言人洪磊对此发表了简短声明。
“We hope the U.S. government adopts responsible policies and measures to guarantee the interests of investors,” Hong said, without elaborating. He did not immediately respond to an e-mail asking for further comment about the latest impasse in Washington.
    洪说：“我们希望美国政府采取可靠的政策措施以保证投资者的利益”，但洪没有对此详细说明。而对于一封要求对最近华盛顿僵局做进一步评论的电子邮件，洪并未立即给予回应。
On Wednesday, China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange echoed that appeal, saying in a statement, “We hope the U.S. government concretely takes responsible policy measures to increase the confidence of international financial markets and respects and safe guards investors’ interests.”
    周三，中国国家外汇管理局对外交部的呼吁随声应和，它在声明中表示：“我们希望美国政府切实采取负责任的政策措施以增加国际金融市场的信心，并尊重和保护投资者的利益。”
“They are playing it very low-key,” said Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who was in China two weeks ago and said he noticed the reticence during meetings with economists and Central Bank officials. “They don’t want to acknowledge publicly their vulnerability. . . . I think word has gone down not to make this a big deal.”
    彼得森国际经济研究所的尼古拉斯·拉蒂（Nicholas Lardy）两周前来到中国，在与中国经济学家和中央银行的官员们会谈时注意到了他们缄口不言，他说：“他们在这个问题上表现的很低调，他们并不想公开承认自己的弱点，我认为上面已经传话下来要求不要把这件事搞的太大。”
The often anti-American media here have also been oddly silent, with most papers, and Xinhua, the official news agency, running brief stories about the ongoing negotiations in Washington — without commentary and mostly putting as positive a spin as possible on the talks.
    那些经常反美的媒体这次也表现的异常沉默，大多数报纸以及官方通讯社—新华社，只对正在华盛顿进行的磋商做了简短的报道，而没有发表评论，并对会谈上有倾向性的陈述尽量做正面的报道。
“U.S. not to default on debt: House speaker,” was the headline on Xinhua’s five-paragraph news story all day Saturday.
    整个周六，新华社五段式新闻报道的的标题为“白宫称美国不会拖欠债务”。
News editors in China have described receiving regular directives from the State Council Information Office and the Communist Party’s Central Propaganda Department — the country’s censors —giving “guidance” as to how stories should be played, what should be emphasized and what stories to play down.
    据称，中国的新闻编辑经常从国家新闻监督机构——国务院新闻办公室和宣传部接受指令，指导他们应该如何报道，什么应该强调，什么内容应该轻描淡写。
“There’s obviously a directive that’s gone down — no reporting, no speculation, no word on how they want this to turn out,” said Dean Cheng, a China scholar with the Heritage Foundation in Washington. “They don’t want to spook anybody.”
    华盛顿传统基金会的中国学者程院长说：“上面传达下来的指示，明显是要求对他们想要得到什么结果不报道，不猜测，不评论。他们不想威胁到任何人。”
Another reason for the official reticence may be that Chinese leaders think the situation will be resolved, so there is no point in starting a public panic.
    官方保持沉默的另一个原因可能是中国领导人认为当前的形势会得以解决，因此没有必要引起公众恐慌。
One scenario, in the event of a default, is that the Obama administration could choose to pay the United States’ foreign bondholders first, meaning Beijing would not have to worry.
    美国一旦违约，一个方案便是奥巴马政府可能优先偿还美国债券的国外持有者，这意味着北京可以高枕无忧了。
Despite China’s vast holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, it is unclear precisely how Beijing’s leaders want the situation to unfold. Cheng said there may be nationalist elements in China— “a tiny, tiny minority” — who might not mind seeing the U.S. economy take the hit from a default, because that would feed into the popular narrative among some here that the United States’ days as a global superpower are numbered.
    尽管中国持有大量的美国国债，但是尚不清楚北京的领导层希望事态如何发展下去，程说,在中国可能有极少数的民族主义者，他们不介意看到美国经济由于债务违约而遭受打击，因为这将为美国作为全球超级大国的日子屈指可数这一说法增添新的证据。
“You have to wonder if there aren’t a few people — government officials and opinion-makers —who aren’t looking at this with a degree of schadenfreude,” Cheng said. “They already think the U.S. is in decline. If we really screw up the issue of our finances, China can go to its neighbors and say, ‘We’re number two, and we’re going to be number one.’ ”
    程说：“你不得不怀疑，是否有一些人（政府官员和舆论引导者）对美国的遭遇幸灾乐祸，他们已经认为美国在衰退，如果我们真的把金融问题弄得很糟糕，中国就可以对它的邻居说，我们现在世界排名第二，很快就会成为世界第一了。”
Yet China has not shown a loss of appetite for stockpiling Treasury securities. In May, it increased its holdings for a second straight month, to a value of $1.6 trillion.
    然而，中国并没有对囤积美国国债失去兴趣，中国在5月份连续第二个月增持美国国债，总额达到1.6万亿美元。
Economists said that move was not surprising. With the euro zone in turmoil because of the Greek debt crisis and Japan devastated by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, China has few alternatives for its foreign exchange reserves other than the dollar, which, despite the impasse in Washington, remains the world’s most liquid and highest-rated currency, analysts said.
    经济学家说中国增持美国国债这一举动并不奇怪。分析人士认为由于希腊债务危机使欧元区陷入混乱，3月11日的地震和海啸对曰本造成严重破坏，中国的外汇储备除了美元别无他选，尽管华盛顿谈判陷入僵局，但是美元仍是世界上流动性最强、评级最高的货币。